ASSESSMENT OF POPULATION DYNAMICS AND FOREST COVER CHANGE IN YUMBE DISTRICT, UGANDA

Sub-Saharan Africa is well endowed with both renewable and non-renewable natural resources critical in supporting several forms of development on the continent. Key among these is natural forest resources. However, the population explosion in sub-Saharan Africa in general and Uganda, in particular, is threatening the survival of these forests due to the associated increasing demand for food, fodder, energy, and land for settlement. The study was conducted in Yumbe district where the forests considered included woodland and bushland since tropical high forests have been depleted or degraded by human activities. We used a predictive model to map future forest cover loss amidst the rapidly increasing population in Yumbe district in Uganda. Specifically, the study analyzed the relationship between population dynamics and forest cover change to predict future forest cover changes. To analyze changes in forest cover, the study utilized Landsat satellite imagery for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2021; while the population data for the respective years was obtained from the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS). To explain the role of anthropogenic forces on forest cover change, the study considered different land use types as explanatory variables: planted forests, subsistence farmland, built-up areas, and other land use types. It then explored the interactions between these variables and forest cover change in the study area. Population-forest cover change model was developed to evaluate three decades of population and trends of forest cover to predict forest cover for 2032. The results indicate that in the three decades, the population increased by more than sixfold, and land area under subsistence agriculture, a proxy of population increased by 195.2%, but the forest cover declined by 80.3%. It is predicted that the forest cover will be lost completely by 2032 when the population reaches an estimated 838,078 from the current 657,430 people. This study, therefore, recommends that off-land employment opportunities such as tourism, apiary, transport, and manufacturing industries should be expanded in order to save forest resources from spatially extensive agricultural land uses.

撒哈拉以南非洲拥有丰富的可再生与不可再生自然资源，这些资源对支撑该大陆多种形式的发展至关重要。其中，天然森林资源尤为关键。然而，撒哈拉以南非洲总体人口的激增，尤其是乌干达的人口增长，正因其对粮食、饲料、能源及定居用地的需求不断增加，威胁着这些森林的生存。

本研究在乌干达延贝区开展，由于热带高森林已因人类活动而枯竭或退化，研究中所涉及的森林类型包括林地和灌丛。我们采用预测模型，在乌干达延贝区人口快速增长的背景下，绘制未来森林覆盖流失的空间分布图。具体而言，本研究分析了人口动态与森林覆盖变化之间的关系，以预测未来的森林覆盖变化趋势。

为分析森林覆盖变化，本研究利用了1990年、2000年、2010年及2021年的Landsat卫星影像；而各年份的人口数据则来源于乌干达统计局（UBOS）。为阐释人为因素对森林覆盖变化的影响，本研究将不同土地利用类型作为解释变量，包括人工林、自给性农田、建成区及其他土地利用类型。随后，研究探究了这些变量与研究区森林覆盖变化之间的相互作用。

研究构建了人口-森林覆盖变化模型，以评估过去三十年的人口及森林覆盖趋势，并预测2032年的森林覆盖情况。结果显示，在过去三十年中，该地区人口增长超六倍；作为人口增长代理指标的自给性农业用地面积增加了195.2%，而森林覆盖率则下降了80.3%。预测显示，到2032年，当人口从当前的657430人增至估计的838078人时，该地区森林覆盖将完全消失。

因此，本研究建议扩大旅游业、养蜂业、交通运输业及制造业等非土地依赖型就业机会，以保护森林资源免受空间扩张性农业用地的侵蚀。