Wall Street vs. Main Street: An Evaluation of Probabilities

This paper challenges recent conventional wisdom of a divide between Main Street (the average American consumer) and Wall Street (financial market participants). The views of survey respondents regarding the likelihood of stock index returns exceeding specific thresholds are compared to market views

本文对近期学界主流共识中“主街（Main Street，即普通美国消费者）与华尔街（Wall Street，即金融市场参与者）之间存在认知分歧”的观点提出了质疑。随后，本文将受访群体对股指回报率突破特定阈值的概率的看法，与市场主流观点进行了对比。