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资源简介：
92 pre-registered, publicly graded geopolitical & launch forecasts — Brier 0.096
应用场景：
创建时间：
2026-07-15
相关数据集
Confidence calibration in a multi-year geopolitical forecasting competition (CAC)
This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its prog
osf.io2017-08-16 更新120
Replication Data for: What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance At Geopolitical Forecasting
Replication data for "What Makes Foreign Policy Teams Tick: Explaining Variation in Group Performance At Geopolitical Forecasting" See readme.txt for more detail on individual files.
NIAID Data Ecosystem50
VERSION 23 — SOS-NOW (n+23) CFT-AI System Analysis of the Iran War April 18, 2026
As with all versions, Version 23 continues where the preceding version left off. This version is after Iran re-asserted control of the Strait of Hormuz and attacked 2 ships there. April 18, 2026.
Zenodo2026-04-18 更新00
The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Scholars, practitioners, and pundits often leave their assessments of uncertainty vague when debating foreign policy, arguing that clearer probability estimates would provide arbitrary detail instead
DataONE2018-08-14 更新80
The Value of Precision in Probability Assessment: Evidence from a Large-Scale Geopolitical Forecasting Tournament
Scholars, practitioners, and pundits often leave their assessments of uncertainty vague when debating foreign policy, arguing that clearer probability estimates would provide arbitrary detail instead
NIAID Data Ecosystem10
