HPQ - Balance Sheet (1).csv

We had a massive weak for central bank rate hikes. I don’t think a recession or earnings compression is priced in. The bear market bounces are still pretty delusional. The NASDAQ 100 was down 3.37% yesterday. Roblox itself was down 15.76% on December 15th, 2022 according to its stock price in Excel. So what gives? So we know that Roblox is the best ecosystem at the intersection of young users, coding, gaming and an internal currency and likely the future of advertising. This is a very lucrative intersection. As Generative A.I. evolves, it will be used in Roblox for kids and young teenagers to create games and assets for games and earn early money. But were the growth metrics too rosy for reality? Roblox revenue, which it calls booking growth, declined year over year due to the strength of the U.S. dollar. Bookings per daily active user also fell by as much as 9% from a year ago. Roblox’s report comes amid broader weakness in the videogaming industry. November 2022 Metrics Daily active users (DAUs) were 56.7 million, up 15% year-over-year. Hours engaged were 3.9 billion, up 10% year-over-year. Estimated revenue was between $190 million and $193 million, up 1% - 3% year-over year. Estimated bookings were between $222 million and $225 million, up 5% - 7% year-over-year1. Estimated average bookings per daily active user (ABPDAU) were between $3.92 and $3.97, down 7% - 9% year-over-year1. Growth stocks should continue to get into trouble heading into 2023 except the very best growth stocks. For instance, the strengthening of the US Dollar against the Euro, British Pound, and other foreign currencies during 2022 has had an adverse impact on bookings. Roblox’s mission is to connect a billion people with optimism and civility. Every day, tens of millions of people around the world have fun with friends as they explore millions of immersive digital experiences. Roblox is a creator economy peer network around gaming and lucrative digital currency called Robux. Robux are the virtual currency of Roblox. There are a few different ways Robux can be earned or purchased and made. On November 19th, 2021 the stock was worth nearly $135, today on December 16th, it’s going to be worth about $26.50. Growth in Roblox seems to be decelerating in line with the Advertising slowdown. The company said estimated bookings were between $222 million and $225 million for the month. That’s up 5% to 7% year over year. But, in November 2021, Roblox said estimated bookings during the same period grew 22% to 24% year over year. This means it may soon be worth looking into buying some Roblox on the dip, likely around February or March, 2023 when the majority of the damage has been done. Roblox is the kind of platform that Meta, ByteDance or Microsoft could only dream they owned, that is unlikely to sell out. They are also a beneficiary if TikTok is banned, along with Snap in my opinion. How does Roblox make money or Robux? Roblox, which once was one of the best value stocks, calls its revenue figure bookings. The company generates revenue from sales of its virtual currency called Robux, which players use to dress up their avatars and buy other premium features in the games. General Momentum is Good Overall daily active users rose 15% from November 2021 to 56.7 million users but, last year, the company reported 35% growth. Current macro conditions are starting to impacts the gaming industry. As a relatively new IPO, Roblox has to shed its going public optimism and hype, and that may take a while yet. Their market cap near $17 Billion is too high, it’s more realistic around $12 billion in my opinion. As Cathie Wood type stocks finally show some mean reversion, Roblox is a good platform stock to own and the key is its immersion and hold on young consumers. It can innovate Artificial Imagination at scale and leverage both gaming, coding and the Creator economy, as well as pioneer new forms of Ads in the Metaverse. Roblox Quarterly Results Around $14 I would start to get excited about Roblox. Realistically it could easily end up being a stock well below $10. Made do you make of the Founder and CEO? I’m very bullish on what Roblox might become and think these are still early days. They have found a way to create a very immersive product and generative revenue. Their next social proof is if they can integrate Generative A.I. and aspects of the Metaverse like VR and advertising in a more innovative way into their ecosystem while giving some of their aging initial group of users new products. Roblox needs to show it’s made for the GenZ cohort and the Alpha Cohort and able to keep generating value for teens and not younger kids. Read the last Roblox shareholder letter. Read the November earnings call Transcript. Scrutinize and do your own due diligence on the official Earnings, including the Financials. Thanks for reading! If you would like to see similar contents, check out these: Apple Fair Value Apple P/E Apple EV/EBITDA Microsoft Fair Value Microsoft P/E Microsoft EV/EBITDA Tesla Fair Value Tesla P/E Tesla EV/EBITDA Amazon Fair Value Amazon P/E Amazon EV/EBITDA Netflix Fair Value Netflix P/E Netflix EV/EBITDA

此轮央行加息潮影响巨大。笔者认为，当前市场尚未计入经济衰退或盈利压缩的风险，熊市反弹仍属虚妄。昨日纳斯达克100指数（NASDAQ 100）下跌3.37%。根据Excel中的股价数据，Roblox在2022年12月15日当日股价跌幅达15.76%。那么背后缘由何在？

众所周知，Roblox是集年轻用户群体、编程、游戏与内部货币于一体的顶级生态系统，亦是未来广告业的核心赛道，该赛道蕴藏极高商业价值。随着生成式AI（Generative AI）的发展，其将应用于Roblox平台，助力儿童与青少年创作游戏及游戏资产，并借此获得早期收入。但此前的增长预期是否过于乐观，脱离现实？

Roblox将其营收指标称为预订营收（booking），受美元走强影响，其预订营收同比出现下滑。每位每日活跃用户的预订营收也较去年同期下滑最多9%。Roblox的财报发布正值整个电子游戏行业整体疲软之际。

2022年11月核心运营数据：
1. 每日活跃用户（Daily Active User，缩写DAU）达5670万，同比增长15%；
2. 用户总游戏时长达39亿小时，同比增长10%；
3. 预估营收区间为1.90亿至1.93亿美元，同比增长1%至3%；
4. 预估预订营收区间为2.22亿至2.25亿美元，同比增长5%至7%¹；
5. 预估每位每日活跃用户平均预订营收（Average Bookings per Daily Active User，缩写ABPDAU）区间为3.92至3.97美元，同比下滑7%至9%¹。

进入2023年，成长型股票仍将面临困境，仅少数顶级成长股除外。例如，2022年美元兑欧元、英镑及其他外币持续走强，对Roblox的预订营收造成了负面影响。

Roblox的企业使命是“以乐观与文明连接十亿用户”。如今，全球每日有数千万用户与好友一同探索数百万个沉浸式数字体验，尽享游戏乐趣。Roblox是围绕游戏与名为Robux的虚拟货币构建的创作者经济对等网络，Robux即为Roblox平台的专属虚拟货币。用户可通过多种途径获取或购买Robux。2021年11月19日，Roblox股价曾接近135美元；而截至2022年12月16日，其股价约为26.50美元。

Roblox的增长似乎正伴随广告行业的放缓而减速。公司披露的11月预估预订营收区间为2.22亿至2.25亿美元，同比增长5%至7%；但在2021年同期，Roblox公布的预订营收同比增速为22%至24%。笔者认为，或许可在2023年2月或3月左右，也就是市场大部分回调落地后，逢低吸纳Roblox股票。

Roblox这类平台是Meta、字节跳动（ByteDance）或微软（Microsoft）梦寐以求的资产，且不太可能被出售。此外，若TikTok及Snap（Snap Inc.）遭禁，Roblox也将成为受益者之一。

Roblox如何实现营收与Robux的流通？曾是顶级价值股之一的Roblox，将其营收指标称为预订营收。公司的营收来源为虚拟货币Robux的销售，玩家可使用Robux为虚拟形象换装，或在游戏中购买其他高级功能。

整体增长势头尚可：2021年11月至2022年11月，每日活跃用户同比增长15%，达5670万；但去年同期，该指标的同比增速为35%。当前宏观经济环境已开始对游戏行业产生影响。作为一家相对年轻的上市公司，Roblox需要褪去上市初期的乐观情绪与炒作泡沫，这一过程或仍需时日。其当前近170亿美元的市值过高，笔者认为合理估值约为120亿美元。

随着凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）旗下类型的股票终于出现均值回归，Roblox作为优质平台股值得持有，其核心竞争力在于对年轻消费者的沉浸式体验与用户粘性。该平台能够规模化实现人工想象力的创新，同时融合游戏、编程与创作者经济，并在元宇宙（Metaverse）中开拓新型广告形式。

Roblox季度业绩展望：若股价跌至14美元左右，笔者将开始重点关注Roblox。现实来看，其股价甚至可能跌破10美元。

你如何看待Roblox的创始人兼首席执行官？笔者对Roblox的未来发展前景持乐观态度，认为当前仍处于早期发展阶段。团队已成功打造出极具沉浸感的产品与可规模化的营收模式。其下一阶段的社会验证将在于，能否以更具创新性的方式将生成式AI与元宇宙元素（如VR与广告）融入其生态系统，同时为早期的资深用户群体推出新产品。Roblox需要证明其不仅面向低龄儿童，更适配Z世代与阿尔法世代群体，能够持续为青少年群体创造价值。

请查阅Roblox最新的股东信函与2022年11月的财报电话会议实录，仔细研读官方财报及相关财务数据，做好独立尽职调查。

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