2010-2050叶尔羌河流域人文要素预测数据集

未来人口情景预测以2005年为基准年，采用人口阻滞增长模型，不仅能够较好地描述人口与许多生物数量的变化规律，而且在经济领域也有广泛的应用。城市化率的预测采用城市化Logistics模型。依据已有的城市化水平序列值，通过非线性回归求出参数式中参数，建立预测模型。城市人口数量由预测的人口数乘以城镇化率求出。数据采用非农业人口。采用logistic模型预测流域未来各县市国民生产总值，然后根据未来各县市各时段经济发展水平（用人均GDP表示）设定各时段相应的产业结构情景，预测各次产业产值。我国及研究区产业结构的变化趋势滞后于GDP增长速度，因而根据设定的研究区未来产业结构情景需要进行了适当调整。

Future population scenario forecasting takes 2005 as the base year and adopts the logistic population growth model. This model can well describe the variation patterns of population and many biological populations, and has been widely applied in the economic field. Urbanization rate forecasting adopts the urbanization Logistics model. Based on the existing time series of urbanization level, the parameters in the model are estimated via nonlinear regression, and the forecasting model is established. The urban population is calculated by multiplying the forecasted total population by the urbanization rate, where non-agricultural population data is utilized. The logistic model is used to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) of each county and city in the study watershed in the future. Then, corresponding industrial structure scenarios for each time period are formulated based on the economic development level (expressed by per capita GDP) of each county and city in each future period, and the output values of the primary, secondary and tertiary industries are forecasted. The change trend of industrial structure in China and the study area lags behind the GDP growth rate, so appropriate adjustments are required based on the set future industrial structure scenarios of the study area.