Climatic-hydrological changes and water resources utilization in East Kunlun Kumukuli Basin, Xinjiang

The East Kunlun Kumukuli Basin, located on the northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, is a typical high-altitude enclosed intermontane fault basin. Based on multi-source remote sensing data and field investigations, this study examines the characteristics of climatic-hydrological changes and the use of water resources in the basin. The results indicate the following: (1) From 1961 to 2024, the basin experienced significant rates of warming 0.33 ℃·(10a)-1 and moistening 6.82 mm·(10a)-1. Warming was more pronounced in the 21st century: 0.45 ℃·(10a)-1 from 2000 to 2024. (2) Hydrologically, surface runoff in the basin increased interdecadally, rising 53.49% from 1999 to 2021, compared to earlier periods. Since the 21st century, lakes have expanded markedly, and their water levels have risen sharply. (3) There are notable differences in the microphysical characteristics of the stratiform and convective precipitation. In stratiform clouds, the mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm) initially increased and then decreased slightly with decreasing altitude, while the normalized intercept parameter (Nw) continued to increase, with raindrop breakup being the dominant microphysical process. In convective clouds, weak convection is primarily characterized by the breakup of small raindrops with high concentrations, whereas coalescence processes dominate strong convection. (4) The atmospheric water vapor content has increased significantly, especially in the 21st century. The precipitation efficiency of the water vapor is relatively low, only 19.4%, yet the potential for cloud water-resource development is considerable due to multiple moisture transport pathways and the basin’s topographic features. The surface water resources in the basin are relatively abundant, making it feasible to divert water from mountainous areas. The findings provide a scientific basis for water resource development and ecological protection in the East Kunlun region.