Spatial effects are determinants of agricultural land prices in Brazil

This study aims to determine whether spatial effects are determinants of agricultural land prices in Brazil. For this purpose, data on the value of the bare land in municipalities in Brazil for 2020, provided by the Federal Revenue Service, were used. Although this database has national coverage, the contiguous data necessary for the application of spatial econometric models allowed us to cover the central-south region of the country. An exploratory spatial data analysis was performed, and the spatial Durbin econometric model was applied. Based on our results, there is a strong spatial dependence on land price, manifested both in the dependent variable, spatially lagged, and through the spillover effects of the independent variables. In addition, it was found that the degree of urbanization of a municipality, the municipal gross domestic product per capita, the average size of properties, the agricultural productivity, and the area dedicated to soybean planting in a rural property are also important determining factors in the pricing of agricultural land. Accordingly, it is possible to conclude that spatial effects influence the determination of agricultural land prices in Brazil.

本研究旨在探究空间效应是否为巴西农业用地价格的决定因素。为此，研究采用了巴西联邦税务局（Federal Revenue Service）提供的2020年巴西各市政辖区裸地价值数据集。尽管该数据库具备全国覆盖范围，但受空间计量模型应用所需的连片数据限制，最终研究样本仅覆盖巴西中南部地区。研究开展了探索性空间数据分析，并应用了空间杜宾（Spatial Durbin）计量模型。基于研究结果，农业用地价格存在显著的空间依赖性，既体现在因变量的空间滞后项中，也通过自变量的溢出效应得以显现。此外，研究还发现，市政辖区的城市化程度、人均市政辖区国内生产总值、地块平均规模、农业生产力，以及农村地块中用于大豆种植的面积，均为影响农业用地定价的重要决定因素。据此可得出结论：空间效应会对巴西农业用地价格的决定产生显著影响。