Does Labor Supply Matter During a Recession? Evidence from the Seasonal Cycle

Every year has large demand and supply shifts associated with the seasons, regardless of the phase of the business cycle. Based on measures dating back to the 1940s, the seasonal shifts reject the hypotheses that demand shifts affect employment outcomes significantly more in recession years than in

无论经济周期处于何种阶段，每年都会出现与季节相关的显著供需波动。基于可追溯至20世纪40年代的测算数据，此类季节性波动推翻了"需求波动对就业结果的显著影响在衰退年份远高于"这一假说。