Spatiotemporal distribution of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome incidence in Brazil between 2012 and 2016

Abstract INTRODUCTION: Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) remains a major public health issue in Brazil. This ecological study aimed to evaluate the spatiotemporal distribution of notified new AIDS cases in Brazil between 2012 and 2016. METHODS: A Bayesian spatiotemporal model based on the Poisson distribution was used to obtain smoothed incidence estimates of AIDS in each of the 133 Brazilian intermediate regions. RESULTS: Spatial distribution of new AIDS cases is highly heterogeneous. Regions with higher gross domestic product per capita tend to have higher incidence rates of AIDS. CONCLUSIONS: Strategies to prevent and control AIDS should consider regional differences.

摘要：获得性免疫缺陷综合征（AIDS）仍是巴西面临的重大公共卫生问题。本生态学研究旨在评估2012至2016年巴西报告的新增艾滋病病例的时空分布特征。方法：采用基于泊松分布的贝叶斯时空模型，对巴西133个中间地理区域的艾滋病发病率进行平滑化估算。结果：新增艾滋病病例的空间分布呈现高度异质性，人均国内生产总值较高的区域往往具有更高的艾滋病发病率。结论：艾滋病防控策略应充分考虑区域差异。