Rear-edge populations are important for understanding climate change risk and adaptation potential of threatened species

Climate change disproportionately threatens alpine species, by reducing available habitat and by isolating their populations. These pressures are particularly relevant for rear-edge populations, which typically occupy more marginal habitat compared to populations at the core of species’ ranges. We studied Caucasian grouse Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi in the Caucasus ecoregion, a global biodiversity hotspot where this species is endemic, to understand potential climate change impacts on the species. Specifically, we assessed how climate change impacts rear-edge populations and how important these populations are for understanding range shifts and adaptive capacity under climate change. We used maximum entropy modelling to assess changes in the distribution of climatically-suitable habitat under present and 2070 climate conditions for the representative concentration pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5). Our results revealed that ignoring rear-edge populations leads to a significant underestimation of the futu...

气候变化通过缩减适宜栖息地面积、割裂种群间联系，对高山物种构成不成比例的生存威胁。此类生存压力对后缘种群（rear-edge populations）影响尤甚——相较于物种分布核心区的种群，后缘种群通常栖息于更为边缘的生境中。我们在高加索生态区（Caucasus ecoregion，全球生物多样性热点地区，该物种为该地特有种）开展高加索松鸡（Caucasian grouse，学名Lyrurus mlokosiewiczi）的相关研究，以探究气候变化对该物种的潜在影响。具体而言，我们评估了气候变化对后缘种群的影响方式，以及这类种群对于理解气候变化背景下物种分布范围变迁与适应能力的重要性。我们采用最大熵模型（maximum entropy modelling），针对典型浓度路径8.5（RCP8.5）情景，评估了当前与2070年气候条件下该物种气候适宜栖息地的分布变化。研究结果显示，若忽略后缘种群，将显著低估该物种未来的...