Replication Data for: Forecasting Dutch Elections. An Initial Model from the March 2017 Legislative Contests. Research & Politics.

Abstract Serious election forecasting has become a routine activity in most Western democracies, with various methodologies employed, e.g., polls, models, prediction markets, citizen forecasting. In the Netherlands, however, election forecasting has limited itself to the use of polls, mainly because other approaches are viewed as too complicated, given the great fragmentation of the Dutch party system. Here we challenge this view, offering the first structural forecasting model of legislative elections there. We find that a straightforward Political Economy equation managed an accurate forecast of the 2017 contest, clearly besting the efforts of the pollsters.

摘要：在绝大多数西方民主国家中，专业选举预测已成为一项常规工作，相关领域已采用了多种预测方法，例如民意调查（polls）、预测模型（models）、预测市场（prediction markets）以及公民预测（citizen forecasting）。然而在荷兰，选举预测却仅局限于使用民意调查手段，这主要是由于荷兰政党体系高度碎片化，其他预测方法被认为过于复杂。本研究对此观点提出挑战，构建了荷兰地区首个议会选举结构化预测模型（structural forecasting model）。研究发现，一个简洁的政治经济学方程（Political Economy equation）能够精准预测2017年荷兰议会选举结果，其表现显著优于民意调查机构的预测成果。