European Monetary Union: Recent evolution and perspectives

ABSTRACT This paper discusses the uniqueness and the stability of the proposed model for the European Monetary Union - EMU, pointing out some of the difficulties faced in its implementation and the chances of surpassing them. It also suggests how all the points of European monetary integration - central bank independence, balanced budget and stability of the exchange rate within a certain band of fluctuation - are sustained upon the proposition that economy founds auto-adjustment since there is flexibility of wages and prices and the State’s intervention remains as short as possible. Thus, the need of convergence of economic and financial EMU’s criterion and the sufficiency of its achievement to a greater development of Europe in face of other countries bring the discussion back to the theoretical paradigm.

摘要 本文探讨了所提出的欧洲货币联盟（European Monetary Union，简称EMU）模型的独特性与稳定性，指出了该模型在实施过程中面临的若干困境，以及突破这些困境的可能性。本文还阐释了欧洲货币一体化的各项核心要点——包括中央银行独立性、预算平衡，以及汇率在特定波动区间内的稳定性——均基于如下命题得以成立：经济可实现自我调节，其前提为工资与价格具备弹性，且国家干预维持在最低限度。因此，达成欧洲货币联盟经济与金融趋同标准的必要性，以及达标程度对于欧洲在国际竞争中实现更大发展的重要性，将本次讨论重新拉回至理论范式的框架之中。