30 meter Esri binary grids of coastal response type probabilities with respect to projected sea levels for the Northeastern U.S. from Maine to Virginia for the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s (Albers, NAD 83)

The U.S. Geological Survey has been forecasting sea-level rise impacts on the landscape to evaluate where coastal land will be available for future use. The purpose of this project is to develop a spatially explicit, probabilistic model of coastal response for the Northeastern U.S. to a variety of sea-level scenarios that take into account the variable nature of the coast and provides outputs at spatial and temporal scales suitable for decision support. Model results provide predictions of adjusted land elevation ranges (AE) with respect to forecast sea-levels, a likelihood estimate of this outcome (PAE), and a probability of coastal response (CR) characterized as either static or dynamic. The predictions span the coastal zone vertically from -12 meters (m) to 10 m above mean high water (MHW). Results are produced at a horizontal resolution of 30 meters for four decades (the 2020s, 2030s, 2050s and 2080s). Adjusted elevations and their respective probabilities are generated using regional geospatial datasets of current sea-level forecasts, vertical land movement rates, and current elevation data. Coastal response type predictions incorporate adjusted elevation predictions with land cover data and expert knowledge to determine the likelihood that an area will be able to accommodate or adapt to water level increases and maintain its initial land class state or transition to a new non-submerged state (dynamic) or become submerged (static). Intended users of these data include scientific researchers, coastal planners, and natural resource management communities.

美国地质调查局（U.S. Geological Survey）长期致力于预测海平面上升对海岸景观的影响，以评估未来可用于开发利用的沿海土地分布。本项目旨在为美国东北部沿海区域构建一套空间显性（spatially explicit）的概率模型，以模拟其对多种海平面上升情景的响应；该模型充分考虑了海岸环境的多变性，且输出结果的空间与时间尺度可满足决策支持需求。模型结果包含三类核心输出：针对预测海平面的校正后陆地高程范围（adjusted land elevation ranges, AE）、该结果的似然估计值（PAE），以及以静态或动态为分类特征的海岸响应概率（CR）。本次预测覆盖的沿海区域垂直跨度介于平均高潮位（mean high water, MHW）以下12米至以上10米。数据集以30米的水平分辨率生成，时间跨度涵盖四个十年周期：2020年代、2030年代、2050年代与2080年代。校正后高程及其对应概率，基于当前海平面预测、陆地垂直运动速率以及当前高程数据的区域地理空间数据集计算得到。海岸响应类型的预测结果则结合了校正后高程预测、土地覆盖数据与专家知识，用以判定某一区域能否容纳或适应水位上升，并维持初始土地类别状态，或是转变为新的非淹没状态（动态响应），抑或是最终被淹没（静态响应）。本数据集的目标用户包括科研人员、沿海规划者以及自然资源管理机构。