International trade in GMOs: have markets paid premiums on Brazilian soybeans?

Abstract: The introduction of GMO technology into global market chains and the rejection by consumers in some markets have led to the reorganization of soybean trades. Brazil has adopted the technology later than other countries and specialized in supplying non-GMO soybean between 1996 and 2005. On the other hand, the United States and Argentina, which adopted the technology in 1996, exported to countries with less social aversion to the GM-technology. The aim of this paper is to investigate the relation between changes in global market chains (price, source and destination and market shares) and GMO technology adoption, focusing on evidences for price premiums for non-GM soybeans produced in Brazil, by the analysis of the trade unit values (TUV). In order to do so, we employ multivariate methods (Principal Components and Hierarchical Cluster analyses) and estimate a Random Effect model based on a bilateral trade dataset covering the years from 1986 to 2010. Results show that GM-technology adoption significantly changed trade patterns. However, premiums were paid for Brazilian soybean only in niche markets, where the market share is lower.

摘要：转基因生物技术（Genetically Modified Organism, GMO）被引入全球市场贸易链，加之部分市场消费者的抵制，引发了大豆贸易格局的重构。巴西晚于其他国家采用该技术，并在1996年至2005年间专注于供应非转基因大豆。与之相对，美国与阿根廷于1996年采用转基因生物技术，向对该技术社会抵触度更低的国家出口大豆。本文旨在探究全球市场贸易格局（涵盖价格、货源、目的地及市场份额）的变化与转基因生物技术采用之间的关联，并通过贸易单位价值（Trade Unit Values, TUV）分析，重点聚焦巴西产非转基因大豆的价格溢价相关实证证据。为此，本文采用多元统计方法（主成分分析（Principal Components Analysis）与系统聚类分析（Hierarchical Cluster Analysis）），并基于1986年至2010年的双边贸易数据集构建随机效应模型（Random Effect Model）进行估计。研究结果表明，转基因生物技术的采用显著改变了全球贸易格局。然而，仅在市场份额较低的利基市场中，巴西产非转基因大豆才获得了价格溢价。