Data for: Better Forecasting by ERCOT has Reduced the ORDC LOLP Even As Intermittent Generation Capacity has Increased

ERCOT 2015 data. ERCOT 30 minute and 60 minute adder values Thermal generation, ORDC distributions, reserve levels in five minute increments. Calculations of each adder value. The ERCOT data is just the actual data. The data set includes the underlying calculations producing values matching ERCOT's data when all parameters are the same. Allowance is made for the user to adjust ORDC LOLP parameters by increasing MCL or by shifting the mean error to calculate new adder values. The total adder contribution for the year is tabulated for comparison with the actual 2015 data. This provides the user the ability to see what the effect would be if the minimum contingency level was changed, or if the mean error was shifted. Additionally, the user can select three options for how the 30 minute mean error would shift, relative to the shift of the 60 minute mean error.

本数据集为德州电力可靠性委员会（ERCOT）2015年相关数据，涵盖ERCOT的30分钟与60分钟附加系数值、火力发电机组运行数据、运行备用需求曲线（ORDC）分布，以及以5分钟为间隔的备用容量水平数据，同时包含各附加系数值的计算过程。其中ERCOT原始数据为真实业务数据，本数据集还内置底层计算逻辑：当所有参数保持一致时，该计算可生成与ERCOT官方数据完全匹配的结果。用户可通过调整最小应急水平（Minimum Contingency Level，MCL）或偏移平均误差，修改运行备用需求曲线（ORDC）的损失负荷概率（Loss of Load Probability，LOLP）参数，进而计算得到全新的附加系数值。本数据集对年度总附加系数贡献量进行了制表汇总，用于与2015年真实数据开展对比分析，可帮助用户直观观察调整最小应急水平或偏移平均误差后产生的实际影响。此外，用户可针对30分钟平均误差相对于60分钟平均误差的偏移模式，选择三种预设调整方案。