Reforming old-age pension systems in developing countries: lessons from Latin America

ABSTRACT Latin American countries, pioneered by Chile, have launched bold old age pension reforms. While these reforms may address issues of financial sustainability of the pension systems, their most valuable contribution is related to political economy aspects as they avoid perverse redistribution within the system and minimise the risk of government appropriation. On the negative side, Chilean inspired reforms represent a costly approach to reform; they may lead to concentration within the industry and increase risks faced by the individual. They do not eliminate evasion, and in some of its versions, they may introduce problems of adverse selection. More importantly, such reforms do not guarantee that old age will be free of poverty, which is (or should be) the main objective of a pension system.

摘要：以智利为先行者的拉美国家已启动了大胆的养老保险制度改革。尽管此类改革或可解决养老保险体系的财务可持续性难题，但其最具价值的贡献在于政治经济学层面：改革规避了体系内的逆向再分配，并最大限度降低了政府挪用养老基金的风险。从负面影响来看，受智利模式启发的改革成本不菲；此类改革或导致行业集中度上升，并加大了个体参保者面临的风险。其并未彻底消除保费逃缴问题，且在部分改革方案版本中，还可能引发逆向选择（adverse selection）问题。更为关键的是，此类改革无法确保老年群体免于贫困，而这正是养老保险体系理应达成的核心目标。