Data from: Going with the flow: the role of ocean circulation in global marine ecosystems under a changing climate

Ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation and reduced productivity are widely considered to be the major stressors to ocean ecosystems induced by emissions of CO2. However, an overlooked stressor is the change in ocean circulation in response to climate change. Strong changes in the intensity and position of the western boundary currents have already been observed, and the consequences of such changes for ecosystems are beginning to emerge. In this study, we address climatically induced changes in ocean circulation on a global scale but relevant to propagule dispersal for species inhabiting global shelf ecosystems, using a high resolution global ocean model run under the IPCC RCP 8.5 scenario. The ¼ degree model resolution allows improved regional realism of the ocean circulation beyond that of available CMIP5-class models. We use a Lagrangian approach forced by modelled ocean circulation to simulate the circulation pathways that disperse planktonic life stages. Based on trajectory backtracking, we identify present-day coastal retention, dominant flow and dispersal range for coastal regions at the global scale. Projecting into the future, we identify areas of the strongest projected circulation change and present regional examples with the most significant modifications in their dominant pathways. Climatically-induced changes in ocean circulation should be considered as an additional stressor of marine ecosystems in a similar way to ocean warming or acidification.

海洋变暖、海水酸化、海洋脱氧以及初级生产力下降，被普遍认为是二氧化碳排放引发的海洋生态系统主要胁迫因子。然而，气候变化诱导的海洋环流变化却是一个长期被忽视的胁迫因素。目前学界已观测到西边界流的强度与位置发生显著改变，此类环流变化对海洋生态系统的影响正逐步显现。本研究依托政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）典型浓度路径8.5（Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, RCP 8.5）情景下运行的高分辨率全球海洋模式，探究全球尺度上气候变化驱动的海洋环流变化——该变化与栖息于全球陆架生态系统的物种繁殖体扩散过程密切相关。该模式采用1/4°的分辨率，相较于现有CMIP5级耦合模式比较计划（Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5, CMIP5）模型，能够更真实地还原区域海洋环流的实际特征。研究采用受模式海洋环流驱动的拉格朗日方法，模拟浮游生物生活史阶段的扩散环流路径；基于轨迹回溯法，我们识别出全球尺度沿海区域当前的沿岸滞留现象、主流流系以及扩散范围。通过未来情景投影，我们锁定了环流变化最显著的区域，并给出了主流流系发生最显著改变的区域案例。与海洋变暖、海水酸化类似，气候变化诱导的海洋环流变化应被视为海洋生态系统的又一类胁迫因子。