Are Stated Expectations Actual Beliefs? New Evidence for the Beliefs Channel of Investment Demand

Despite growing interest in expectation surveys, critics argue that survey responses are not reliable measures of the expectations underlying financial decisions, and empirical work often finds only a weak correlation between investment and stated beliefs. In this paper, we document a systematic gap

尽管预期调查（expectation surveys）的关注度与日俱增，但批评者认为，调查回复并非衡量金融决策背后所持预期的可靠指标，且实证研究往往仅能发现投资行为与受访者表述的信念之间存在微弱相关性。在本文中，我们将记录一类系统性缺口。