Precipitation 90th percentile for Current Climate (1950-1999)

Model Run: Control - Current Climate (Observed/current climate as modelled by climate model). The Self-Organizing Map Downscaling (SOMD) was developed at the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG)[1], University of Cape Town. This is a leading empirical downscaled technique and provides meteorological station level response to global climate change forcing (See Hewitson and Crane (2006) for methodological details and Wilby et al. (2004) for a review of this and other statistical downscaling methodologies). Downscaling of a General Circulation Model (GCM) is accomplished by deriving the normative local response from the atmospheric state on a given day, as defined from historical observed data. [1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/

模型运行：控制情景——当前气候（由气候模型模拟得到的观测/当前气候）。自组织映射降尺度（Self-Organizing Map Downscaling, SOMD）由开普敦大学气候系统分析小组（Climate Systems Analysis Group, CSAG）[1]研发。该技术是主流的经验降尺度方法，可提供全球气候变化强迫作用下的气象站点尺度响应（方法学细节参见Hewitson与Crane（2006）的研究，关于该方法及其他统计降尺度方法的综述可参考Wilby等人（2004）的成果）。通用环流模型（General Circulation Model, GCM）的降尺度过程，通过从历史观测数据定义的特定日期大气状态中提取典型局地响应来完成。[1] http://www.csag.uct.ac.za/