Nigeria National Demand Timeseries [2016]

To allow for a proper assessment of the reliability contribution of renewables on any grid, it is imperative that the electricity demand is reflective of actual consumption. Historical national demand time series profiles are not publicly available from Nigeria’s transmission system operator; therefore, a long-term demand profile had to be developed. Using hourly demand timeseries of 5 Nigerian utilities, with an aggregate regulated offtake requirement of 53.5% of total grid generation, we have reconstructed a timeseries demand "suppressed" for the entire Nigerian grid. This analysis was performed for a five-year period and validated against annual energy consumption data from the multi-year tariff order (MYTO) financial model used by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC). Validation results yield an average error margin of 5.8%, while the peak demand for period is 4.8GW.
To establish the hourly national unsuppressed demand profile, the unsuppressed demand profile for each utility is first generated, and then the national profile is estimated based on an historical network-wide stress test. Due to significant load shedding events, the measured timeseries demand data of utilities typically are populated with blanks. Therefore, a suitable method is required to estimate the demand that would have otherwise occurred if there were no outage events. A structural model developed to reconstruct unsuppressed demand data based on the historical observations of suppressed demand on the feeder is applied to the utility demand data. The reconstructed demand timeseries leverages data either side of a load shedding event to fill in a likely value resulting in better estimates of demand at times of the day when a feeder is often disconnected. It is then possible to aggregate the reconstructed timeseries profiles to determine the unsuppressed grid connected demand. The peak unsuppressed demand for the period is 8.0GW, with an average unmet energy demand of 51.5% (26.7TWh). The 2016 timeseries data provided here is for research purposes only.