A Multivariate Supervised Learning Model as Predictor of the Learner’s Decision to Drop out or Persist in (L2) Classroom Courses

Learners differ enormously in how successful they are in (L2) acquisition due to individual differences, which are varied not only in the speed of acquisition or the level of achievement but also in the decision to drop out or persist in a classroom learning courses. The purpose of this study was to determine whether the two groups of learners (persistence and dropouts) are different in their learner variables (demographic and affective variables). Quantitative data were collected from 278 learners who had dropped out or retained in Intermediate English Language Course (B1), which offered by a mass education center in Istanbul Turkey. The two groups showed statistical differences in the language proficiency test score (explaining roughly 34.6% of the variation); furthermore, in the perceptions of motivation (explaining 42% of the variation), attitude (explaining 40.2% of the variation) and anxiety (explaining 28.9% of the variation). It was also shown that the theoretical framework, which includes affective variables in addition to demographic variables, can predict learners’ decision to drop out or persist. The educational implications of these findings for understanding the learners’ decision to drop out or persist in (L2) learning classroom courses are discussed, along with suggestions for future research.

学习者由于个体差异在（L2）习得上的成功与否存在巨大差异，这些差异不仅体现在习得速度或成就水平上，还体现在是否退出或坚持课堂学习课程的决定上。本研究的目的是确定两组学习者（坚持者与辍学者）在学习者变量（人口统计学变量和情感变量）上是否存在差异。通过对伊斯坦布尔土耳其一所大众教育中心提供的中级英语语言课程（B1）的278名辍学者或坚持者的定量数据收集，发现两组在语言能力测试分数上存在显著的统计学差异（解释了约34.6%的变异）；此外，在动机感知（解释了42%的变异）、态度（解释了40.2%的变异）和焦虑（解释了28.9%的变异）方面也存在差异。研究还表明，包括情感变量在内的理论框架可以预测学习者是否选择辍学或坚持。本文讨论了这些发现对理解学习者是否在（L2）学习课堂课程中辍学或坚持的教育意义，并提出了对未来研究的研究建议。