ENSO shapes multiscale drought propagation across China’s drylands with type-specific lags

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key factor in interannual climate variability. Its influence on multiscale drought propagation and the related type-specific lags remains inadequately quantified, especially in dryland areas. Here, we examine ENSO controls on hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural drought in dryland regions (arid and semi-arid zones) during 1980 to 2020. We develop multiscale ENSO-driven drought dynamics and lag-effect (MEDDL) model that integrates drought indices, event-year significance testing, and time-frequency to identify coherent modes and phase-based lags.