Supplementary files (ESR) - Assessing the Impact of EU-CBAM on the Global Economy

The European Union’s introduction of a carbon tax through the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has elicited concerns regarding its potential economic ramifications on the global economies. This paper assesses the effects of the CBAM on all economies exporting to the EU27 market, focusing on economies by income, including the least-developed countries (LDCs) and the middle-income Countries’ (MICs), using the input-output and the Global Trade Analysis Project -Energy (GTAP-E) models. Simulation results show that emissions in most EU trading regions will likely decline. Similarly, real GDP, exports and import flows, and welfare of most regions exporting to the EU27 will significantly diminish. Nevertheless, the nature and magnitude of these impacts exhibit variability. Notably, in contrast to the developed, upper-middle, and lower-middle-income countries, the least developed countries experience a comparatively marginal impact. These findings suggest that the influence of CBAM is contingent upon the specific geographic region and industry under consideration.

欧盟通过碳边境调节机制（CBAM）引入碳税的举措，引发了各界对其可能对全球经济体造成经济影响的担忧。本文采用投入产出模型与全球贸易分析项目-能源（GTAP-E）模型，针对所有向欧盟27国市场出口的经济体，按收入层级分类，涵盖最不发达国家（LDCs）与中等收入国家（MICs）。模拟结果显示，欧盟多数贸易伙伴区域的碳排放大概率下降，多数向欧盟27国出口的经济体的实际GDP、进出口贸易额与福利水平均会显著下滑，但这些影响的性质与程度存在差异，值得注意的是，相较于发达、中高、中低收入国家，最不发达国家（LDCs）受到的影响相对轻微。研究结果表明，碳边境调节机制（CBAM）的影响取决于具体的地理区域与行业。