Advance Layoff Notice Data from the WARN Act

We collect novel and timely data from advance layoff notices filed under the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act. The act requires larger employers to notify affected workers at least 60 days before a potential mass layoff. We assemble WARN data from across the United States, and for many large states our data begin in the 1990s. We aggregate these data into an unbalanced, monthly panel of the state-level number of workers affected by WARN notices, and we update this panel twice a month. We also aggregate this panel to a national-level indicator of job loss (the "WARN factor") using a dynamic factor model.<br>

<b><br>Data Collection</b><br>We update the data twice a month by collecting WARN
notices from state websites. For many states, we have extended our historical
data by using digital archives of the internet and contacting state
officials.<br> <br><b>Citation</b><br>To learn more about
the data and the dynamic factor model, see:<br>Krolikowski, Pawel M. and Kurt G. Lunsford. 2022. “Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss.” Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. 20-03R. https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202003R.<br>Krolikowski, Pawel M., and Kurt G. Lunsford. 2024 “Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss.” Journal of Applied Econometrics. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3032.<b><br><br></b><b>File Description</b><br>The file labelled WARNFiles_YYYYMMDD.zip in the
main directory contains our most recent data. All data included in this zip
file were collected as of the date listed in the file name. Previous
vintages of our data appear in the `Archived_Vintages’ folder, with the same
naming convention.<br>
<br>The zip files contain three files:<br>
<br>

1.
README.txt

<br>2.
WARNData_NSA_YYYYMMDD.csv

This .csv contains the number of workers affected by
WARN notices by state and month. These data are not seasonally adjusted.
These data are the input into the dynamic factor model.

3.
WARNFactors_YYYYMMDD.csv

This .csv contains the output of the dynamic factor
model. The output is labeled as follows:

WARN Factor: the estimates of the factor from the
dynamic factor model.
MSE: the estimated mean squared errors
of the WARN factor.
WARN_hat: the number of workers affected by
WARN notices as implied by the WARN factor.
WARN_sum: the sum of the number of
workers affected by WARN notices from several states that form a
balanced panel beginning in January 2006. These states can change every
update.<b>Disclaimer</b><br>These data are
updated by the authors and are not an official product of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Cleveland.<br>

我们从依据《工人调整与再培训通知法案》（Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification Act，简称WARN法案）提交的提前裁员通知中收集了新颖且时效性强的数据。该法案要求大型雇主在潜在大规模裁员前至少60天通知受影响员工。我们在美国各地收集WARN法案相关数据，对于多个大州，我们的数据集可追溯至20世纪90年代。我们将这些数据整合为非平衡月度面板数据集，涵盖各州层面受WARN通知影响的员工数量，并每月更新两次该面板数据。此外，我们还通过动态因子模型（dynamic factor model）将该面板数据整合为全国层面的失业指标——“WARN因子”（WARN factor）。<br><b>数据收集</b><br>我们通过从各州官方网站采集WARN通知，每月更新两次数据集。针对多个州，我们借助互联网数字档案以及联系州政府官员，补充完善了历史数据。<br><b>引用说明</b><br>如需了解该数据集与动态因子模型的更多细节，请参考：<br>Krolikowski, Pawel M. 与 Kurt G. Lunsford. 2022. 《提前裁员通知与总体失业规模》，克利夫兰联邦储备银行，工作论文第20-03R号。https://doi.org/10.26509/frbc-wp-202003R.<br>Krolikowski, Pawel M. 与 Kurt G. Lunsford. 2024. 《提前裁员通知与总体失业规模》，《应用计量经济学杂志》。https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.3032.<br><b>文件说明</b><br>主目录下名为WARNFiles_YYYYMMDD.zip的压缩文件为我们最新的数据集。该压缩包内的所有数据均采集至文件名标注的日期。过往版本的数据集存放在`Archived_Vintages`文件夹中，命名规则保持一致。<br><br>该压缩包包含三个文件：<br><br>1. README.txt<br><br>2. WARNData_NSA_YYYYMMDD.csv<br>该CSV文件包含各州各月受WARN通知影响的员工数量，未经过季节调整，为动态因子模型的输入数据。<br><br>3. WARNFactors_YYYYMMDD.csv<br>该CSV文件包含动态因子模型的输出结果，各输出项标注如下：<br>WARN Factor：动态因子模型得到的因子估计值；<br>MSE：WARN因子的估计均方误差；<br>WARN_hat：由WARN因子推算得到的受WARN通知影响的员工数量；<br>WARN_sum：2006年1月起形成平衡面板的多州受WARN通知影响的员工数量总和，各州样本可随每次更新发生调整。<br><b>免责声明</b><br>本数据集由作者自行更新，并非克利夫兰联邦储备银行的官方产品。