Data and Code for: The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity

Population aging is expected to slow U.S. economic growth. We use variation in the predetermined component of population aging across states to estimate the impact of population aging on growth in GDP per capita for 1980-2010. We find that each 10% increase in the fraction of the population ages 60+ decreased per-capita GDP by 5.5%. One-third of the reduction arose from slower employment growth; two-thirds was due to slower labor productivity growth. Labor compensation and wages also declined in response. Our estimate implies population aging reduced the growth rate in GDP per capita by 0.3 percentage points per year during 1980-2010.

人口老龄化预计将减缓美国经济增长。本研究借助美国各州间人口老龄化的预先既定组成部分的差异，估算了1980-2010年期间人口老龄化对人均GDP（GDP per capita）增长的影响。研究发现，60岁及以上人口占比每提升10%，人均GDP将下降5.5%。该降幅中有三分之一源于就业增长放缓，三分之二则由劳动生产率增长放缓所致。劳动报酬与工资亦随之出现下滑。本研究的估算结果表明，1980-2010年间人口老龄化使人均GDP年均增速降低了0.3个百分点。