Mortality differentials in beneficiaries of the National Institute of Social Security of Brazil in 2015

ABSTRACT This paper aims to estimate mortality and analyze its differentials by sex, age, and groups of beneficiaries of the Brazilian National Institute of Social Security (INSS) in 2015 and make comparisons with official estimates for the general population, assessing the distribution of deaths by age and of survival after 65 years old. The results reinforce the need for more studies on mortality differentials between beneficiary groups and for continuous investment to improve the quality of the data. Population aging, among other aspects, puts pressure on the Brazilian social security system, and there is real concern about its sustainability. Life tables by population subgroups are fundamental as a tool for analyzing the financial and actuarial equilibrium of the system. The results contribute to the debate on the mortality differentials between groups of beneficiaries of the general pension and social security system in Brazil. The death and population data derive from the administrative records of the INSS. We used Gompertz and Van de Maen models and Topals regression to estimate the mortality rates above the age of 65, according to the following beneficiary groups: retirees through age of the General Social Security Regime (Regime Geral de Previdência Social - RGPS) - disaggregated by urban and rural clienteles; retirees through period of contribution; and beneficiaries of welfare support for low income seniors. Among the main results, it was possible to minimize the crossover in the mortality rates of older ages, when the mortality of the less advantaged population becomes lower than the mortality of populations with better social indicators. Cross-checking the results with the official mortality estimates, it was observed that life expectancies for the 65 and 75 year old age groups of the target population of this study are higher than in the general population.

摘要 本文旨在估算2015年巴西全国社会保障局（Brazilian National Institute of Social Security, INSS）受益群体的死亡率，分析其按性别、年龄及群体类型划分的死亡率差异，并与一般人群的官方死亡率估算结果进行对比；同时评估按年龄分布的死亡情况以及65岁以上人群的生存状况。研究结果佐证了开展受益群体间死亡率差异相关研究的必要性，以及持续投入以提升数据质量的重要性。人口老龄化等诸多因素给巴西社会保障体系带来了压力，人们对其可持续性存在切实的担忧。按人口细分群体编制的生命表，是分析该体系财务与精算平衡的核心工具。本研究结果可为巴西普通养老金与社会保障体系受益群体间的死亡率差异相关讨论提供参考。本研究的死亡与人口数据源自巴西全国社会保障局的行政记录。我们采用冈珀茨（Gompertz）模型、范德曼（Van de Maen）模型以及托帕尔（Topals）回归，针对以下几类受益群体估算65岁以上人群的死亡率：按城镇与农村参保群体细分的普通社会保障制度（Regime Geral de Previdência Social, RGPS）退休人员；按缴费年限划分的退休人员；以及低收入老年群体福利救助受益人。主要研究结果显示，本研究成功弱化了高龄群体死亡率的交叉问题——即社会经济地位较低群体的死亡率低于社会指标更优群体的情况。将研究结果与官方死亡率估算结果进行交叉验证后发现，本研究目标群体中65岁及75岁年龄组的预期寿命均高于一般人群。