Replication Data for: 'Who Gets What: The Economy, Relative Gains, and Brexit' British Journal of Political Science

A debate exists about the economic and cultural-based drivers of support for populism. In this paper, we argue that economic concerns matter, but they are realised through the relative gains and losses of social groups. Using new survey items in a large representative survey in Britain, we show that citizens’ economic assessments of the ethnic minority out-group - in relation to the group’s 12 months ago and to assessments of the economic conditions of the white British in-group - are a predictor of support for Brexit. Results, which are robust to prior referendum vote, immigration attitudes, and cultural sentiment, extend across income groups and national identity strength. Extending the analysis to a comparison of geographic in- and out-groups between local communities and London lends additional support to our argument. The implications of relative group-based economics are important for understanding Brexit and the economic sources of support for populism more broadly.

学界围绕支持民粹主义的经济与文化驱动因素尚存争议。本研究认为，经济关切确有影响，但此类关切实则通过社会群体的相对得失得以彰显。依托英国一项大型代表性抽样调查中的全新调查题项，本研究表明，民众对少数族裔外群体的经济评价——相较于该群体12个月前的经济状况，以及相较于对白人英国本土群体经济状况的评价——是英国脱欧支持倾向的预测因子。上述研究结果在控制了此前公投投票倾向、移民态度与文化情绪等变量后依然稳健，且在不同收入群体与民族认同强度分层中均成立。本研究进一步将分析拓展至地方社区与伦敦之间的地理内、外群体比较，为核心论点提供了额外支撑。基于群体相对经济状况的研究结论，对于理解英国脱欧现象，以及更广泛地理解民粹主义支持率的经济根源均具有重要意义。