Selection criteria statistics for selected negative binomial models.

Legend: IL: identity link; LL: logarithmic link function with transformation method “ZQ1” corresponding to equation 2.2 in Zeger and Qaqish [24] and with ; nep: number of estimated parameters; DIC: Deviance Information Criterion; MARE: mean absolute relative error of fitted values; RF: with rainfall lagged at two months; SOH: second order harmonics; *: The ‘MARE out of sample’ was calculated for the second half of the series, with the model fitted to the first half of the series only. For all models, where applicable, the autoregressive ( and ) or moving average parameters ( and ) corresponding to the first two lags were omitted.