ASSESSMENT AND FORECASTING OF SMALL BUSINESS ENTITIES' ACTIVITIES IN ENSURING REGIONAL FOOD SECURITY BASED ON ECONOMETRIC MODELS

This research evaluates small business contributions to regional food security using econometric models. SMEs enhance all four food security pillars through short supply chains and economic multipliers. Regression analysis shows SME density explains 25-40% variance in food access; SEM reveals supply chain resilience pathways. ARIMA/VAR and machine learning models provide 7-month forecasts, identifying SME market share as top stability predictor. Policy thresholds: >15% SME density signals robust security.