AAP Project 4501: Mapping, predicting and monitoring ecological change in the Southern Ocean - Future predictions of HIMI demersal Fish

Climate change is already influencing the worlds oceans. The Kerguelen Plateau as been identified as a climate change hotspot. This study aimed to predict and map how climate change will impact the distribution of demersal fishes. This study uses the published modeled (see https://doi.org/10.25959/4GVK-RM21) to take in predicted oceanographic variables under various IPCC climate change predictions. The oceanographic variables are provided by the FESOM model. Hierarchical models of species communities (HMSC) were used to make predictions in the demersal fish distribution for the 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, and 2050s. Predictions were mapped to explore the regions of change. This record contains all the environmental data, R code, and outputs from this project. Raw RSTS data needs to be requested from the AAD under the authorization of AFMA.

气候变化已对全球海洋造成显著影响。凯尔盖朗海台（Kerguelen Plateau）已被认定为气候变化热点区域。本研究旨在预测并制图展示气候变化对底栖鱼类（demersal fishes）分布的影响。本研究采用已发表的模型（详见https://doi.org/10.25959/4GVK-RM21），纳入不同政府间气候变化专门委员会（Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC）气候变化情景下的预估海洋学变量。该海洋学变量由FESOM模式提供。本研究采用物种群落分层模型（Hierarchical Models of Species Communities, HMSC），对2020年代、2030年代、2040年代及2050年代的底栖鱼类分布开展预估。随后对预估结果进行制图，以探究发生分布变化的海域。本数据集包含本项目的全部环境数据、R代码及运算产出结果。原始RSTS数据需经澳大利亚渔业管理局（AFMA）授权后，向澳大利亚南极署（AAD）申请获取。