Data from: Spatial analysis of anthropogenic landscape disturbance and Buruli ulcer disease in Benin

Background: Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one anthropogenic disturbance linked to infectious disease emergence. Current research has focused largely on wildlife and vector-borne zoonotic diseases, neglecting to investigate landscape disturbance and environmental bacterial infections. One example is Buruli ulcer (BU) disease, a necrotizing skin disease caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU). Empirical and anecdotal observations have linked BU incidence to landscape disturbance, but potential relationships have not been quantified as they relate to land cover configurations. Methodology/Principal Findings: A landscape ecological approach utilizing Bayesian hierarchical models with spatial random effects was used to test study hypotheses that land cover configurations indicative of anthropogenic disturbance were related to Buruli ulcer (BU) disease in southern Benin, and that a spatial structure existed for drivers of BU case distribution in the region. A final objective was to generate a continuous, risk map across the study region. Results suggested that villages surrounded by naturally shaped, or undisturbed rather than disturbed, wetland patches at a distance within 1200m were at a higher risk for BU, and study outcomes supported the hypothesis that a spatial structure exists for the drivers behind BU risk in the region. The risk surface corresponded to known BU endemicity in Benin and identified moderate risk areas within the boundary of Togo. Conclusions/Significance: This study was a first attempt to link land cover configurations representative of anthropogenic disturbances to BU prevalence. Study results identified several significant variables, including the presence of natural wetland areas, warranting future investigations into these factors at additional spatial and temporal scales. A major contribution of this study included the incorporation of a spatial modeling component that predicted BU rates to new locations without strong knowledge of environmental factors contributing to disease distribution.

背景：土地利用与土地覆被（Land use and land cover, LULC）变化是与新发传染病相关的人为干扰因素之一。当前研究多聚焦于野生动物及媒介传播的人畜共患病，却忽略了景观干扰与环境细菌性感染相关的研究。布鲁里溃疡（Buruli ulcer, BU）便是典型案例：这是一种由环境病原体溃疡分枝杆菌（Mycobacterium ulcerans, MU）引发的坏死性皮肤病。经验观察与轶事记录均将布鲁里溃疡的发病率与景观干扰相关联，但尚未量化其与土地覆被格局之间的潜在关联。
方法学与主要发现：本研究采用景观生态学方法，结合带有空间随机效应的贝叶斯分层模型（Bayesian hierarchical models），验证两项研究假说：其一，表征人为干扰的土地覆被格局与贝宁南部的布鲁里溃疡（BU）发病相关；其二，该区域布鲁里溃疡病例分布的驱动因素存在空间结构。本研究的最终目标是生成研究区域内的连续风险分布图。结果显示，在1200米范围内被自然形态、未受干扰而非受干扰的湿地斑块环绕的村庄，布鲁里溃疡发病风险更高；研究结果验证了该区域布鲁里溃疡风险驱动因素存在空间结构的假说。该风险面与贝宁已知的布鲁里溃疡地方性流行区域相吻合，并在多哥境内划定了中等风险区域。
结论与意义：本研究首次尝试将表征人为干扰的土地覆被格局与布鲁里溃疡的流行程度相关联。研究结果确定了包括自然湿地分布在内的多个显著影响变量，值得在更多空间与时间尺度上对这些因素开展后续研究。本研究的一大重要贡献在于引入了空间建模模块，即便在缺乏疾病分布相关环境因素的充分认知时，也能预测新区域的布鲁里溃疡发病率。