Uma Nota Sobre o Impacto do Comércio Internacional no Crescimento de Economias em Desenvolvimento

This paper investigates the impact of international trade on the economic growth of a group of developing countries. For this, the structural model proposed by Anderson et al. (2014) is used. The results indicate that growth is stimulated by bilateral trade. Counterfactual exercises suggest that trade liberalization, whether it results from reduced NAFTA costs or a hyperglobalization process, has a significant and positive impact on social welfare for some of the countries analyzed. In the case of Brazil, the improvement in welfare is 0.25% and 9.13%, respectively. Overall, the results demonstrate that international trade can be used as a tool to leverage GDP growth and the welfare of countries.

本文探究国际贸易对一组发展中国家经济增长的影响。为此，本文采用了Anderson等人（2014）提出的结构模型。研究结果表明，双边贸易能够刺激经济增长。反事实分析结果显示，无论是通过降低北美自由贸易协定（NAFTA）的贸易成本，还是通过超全球化进程实现的贸易自由化，均对部分分析样本国家的社会福利产生了显著的正向影响。以巴西为例，其社会福利将分别提升0.25%与9.13%。综合来看，本研究结果证实，国际贸易可作为撬动一国国内生产总值（GDP）增长与社会福利提升的有效工具。