Employment, technical change and growth in Brazil: a conclusion from Input-Output Matrix

ABSTRACT The debate on technological unemployment is accentuated when disruptive innovations gain eminence, as is the recent case of artificial intelligence. However, such analyses often ignore economic growth and aggregate demand in the treatment of unemployment. This article analyses what has been happening about the jobs in Brazil from the structural decomposition of the Input-Output Matrix. What we find is that, except for agriculture, sectors were job generators from 2000 to 2015. In addition, demand gains were able to compensate for job losses resulting from technological progress.

摘要 随着颠覆性创新崭露头角，关于技术性失业的争论愈发激烈，近期人工智能的相关情况便是典型一例。然而此类分析在探讨失业问题时，往往忽略了经济增长与总需求的影响。本文借助投入产出表（Input-Output Matrix）的结构分解方法，分析了巴西就业市场的变化态势。研究结果显示，2000年至2015年间，除农业外的各产业均为就业岗位创造主体。此外，需求增长能够抵消技术进步带来的岗位流失。