Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change

Temperate lakes may contain both coolwater fish species such as walleye (Sander vitreus) and warmwater species such as largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides). Recent declines in walleye and increases in largemouth bass populations have raised questions regarding the future trajectories and appropriate management actions for these important species. We developed a thermodynamic model of water temperatures driven by downscaled climate data and lake specific characteristics to estimate daily water temperature profiles for 2151 lakes in Wisconsin, USA under contemporary (1989-2014) and future (2040-2064 and 2065-2089) conditions. We correlated contemporary walleye recruitment success and largemouth bass relative abundance to modeled water temperature, lake morphometry, and lake productivity, and projected lake specific changes in each species under future climate conditions. These data support the following publication: Hansen, G.J.A., J.S. Read, J.F. Hansen, L.A. Winslow, In Press, Projected shifts in fish species dominance in Wisconsin lakes under climate change, Global Change Biology.

温带湖泊（Temperate lakes）可同时栖息玻璃梭鲈（walleye, *Sander vitreus*）这类冷水性鱼类与大口黑鲈（largemouth bass, *Micropterus salmoides*）这类暖水性鱼类。近期玻璃梭鲈种群衰减与大口黑鲈种群扩张的现象，引发了学界对这类重要物种种群未来发展轨迹及适宜管理措施的探讨。本研究构建了以降尺度气候数据（downscaled climate data）与湖泊专属特征（lake specific characteristics）为驱动因子的水温热力学模型（thermodynamic model），用于估算美国威斯康星州2151个湖泊在当代（1989-2014年）及未来（2040-2064年、2065-2089年）气候情景下的逐日水温剖面（daily water temperature profiles）。我们将当代玻璃梭鲈的种群补充成功情况与大口黑鲈的相对丰度，与模拟得到的水温、湖泊形态测量特征（lake morphometry）及湖泊生产力（lake productivity）进行关联，并预测了未来气候情景下各物种的湖泊专属种群变化。本数据集支撑以下已录用待刊论文：Hansen, G.J.A., J.S. Read, J.F. Hansen, L.A. Winslow, 已录用待刊, 《气候变化下威斯康星州湖泊鱼类优势种的预测转变》，《全球变化生物学》（Global Change Biology）。