Creation and Use of Automated Storm-Based Probabilistic Hazard Information for National Weather Service Forecasting and Warnings

Experiments in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) have shown that storm-based Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) can support forecasters in making more effective shortterm forecasts and warning decisions (e.g., Karstens et al. 2015, 2018; Calhoun et al. 2024). PHI integrates data from multiple platforms and algorithms to generate storm-based probabilities of individual hazards along with projected storm tracks (Fig. 1). Forecasters have used PHI to assess storm trends, improve situational awareness and confidence during operations, and guide severe thunderstorm and tornado warning decisions. In addition, PHI shows promise for increasing both consistency and accuracy of NWS warnings.