ECIN Replication Package for "The Economic Impact of Uncertainty about U.S. Regulations of the Energy Sector"

This project contains the replication package for the paper titled "<b>The
Economic Impact of Uncertainty about U.S. Regulations of the Energy Sector</b>."<br><br><i>Abstract:</i> This paper examines the economic impact of uncertainty surrounding U.S. regulatory policies of the energy sector. We first construct a monthly-frequency measure of regulatory uncertainty related to oil and gas production using natural language processing on over 600,000 U.S. newspaper articles published from 1985 to 2021. We then conduct empirical analysis via structural VAR models with the constructed oil regulatory uncertainty index, oil market variables, and aggregate economic data. The impulse response functions suggest that an increase in oil regulatory uncertainty reduces oil production and drilling activity and negatively affects national and state-level economic outcomes.

本项目为题为《美国能源部门监管不确定性的经济影响》的学术论文提供复现套件。

摘要：本文聚焦美国能源部门监管政策不确定性的经济影响展开研究。研究团队首先依托1985年至2021年间刊载的60余万篇美国报纸文章，借助自然语言处理（Natural Language Processing，NLP）技术，构建了针对油气生产领域的月度监管不确定性测度指标。随后，研究人员结合构建的石油监管不确定性指数、石油市场变量与总量经济数据，通过结构向量自回归（Structural VAR，SVAR）模型开展实证分析。脉冲响应函数分析结果表明，石油监管不确定性的提升会抑制石油生产与钻探活动，并对国家级及州级层面的经济表现产生负面冲击。