Data for: Predicting the contribution of single trait evolution to rescuing a plant population from demographic impacts of climate change

Evolutionary adaptation can allow a population to persist in the face of a new environmental challenge. With many populations now threatened by environmental change, it is important to understand whether this process of evolutionary rescue is feasible under natural conditions, yet work on this topic has been largely theoretical. We used unique long-term data to parameterize deterministic and stochastic models of the contribution of one trait to evolutionary rescue using field estimates for the subalpine plant Ipomopsis aggregata and hybrids with its close relative I. tenuituba. In the absence of evolution or plasticity, the two studied populations are projected to go locally extinct due to earlier snowmelt under climate change, which imposes drought conditions. Phenotypic selection on specific leaf area (SLA) was estimated in 12 years and multiple populations. Those data on selection and its environmental sensitivity to annual snowmelt timing in the spring were combined with previous da..., The study sites consisted of three “Poverty Gulch” sites in Gunnsion National Forest and one site “Vera Falls” at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, all in Gunnison County, CO, USA. Focal plants included two sets of plants. One set (data from 2009-2019) consisted of plants in common gardens at three sites: an I. aggregata site (hereafter “agg”), an I. tenuituba site (hereafter “ten”) and a site at the center of the natural hybrid zone (hereafter “hyb”). The second set consisted of plants growing in situ at two of the same Poverty Gulch sites (“agg” and “hyb”), and an I. aggregata site at Vera Falls (hereafter “VF”; data from 2017-2023). 
The common gardens were started from seed in 2007 and 2008. Measurements of SLA in these gardens began when plants were 2 years old, either 2009 or 2010 depending upon the garden, as they are only small seedlings during their first summer after seed maturation. By 2018, all but 15 of the 4512 plants originally planted had died, wit..., # Data for: Predicting the contribution of single trait evolution to rescuing a plant population from demographic impacts of climate change

Dataset DOI: [10.5061/dryad.ht76hdrtn](10.5061/dryad.ht76hdrtn)

## Description of the data and file structure

File \"mastervegtraitsSLA2023.csv\" contains data on specific leaf area for Ipomopsis plants in the field.

Files \"masterdemography_insitu_2023.csv\" and \"masterdemography_commongarden.csv\" provide the corresponding information on survival to flowering.

File \"snowmelt.csv\" provides dates of snowmelt in the spring.

File \"selection_vs_snowmelt.csv\" provides intermediate results on selection intensities from analysis with the first parts of the code \"Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd\".

File \"IPMresults.csv\" provides estimates of the finite rate of increase (lambda) predicted from the publication by Campbell [https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820096116](https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820096116)

File \"Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd\" provi...,

进化适应可使种群在面临全新环境挑战时得以存续。当前诸多种群正受到环境变化的威胁，因此探究进化拯救（evolutionary rescue）这一过程在自然条件下是否可行具有重要意义，但目前该领域的研究大多仍停留在理论层面。本研究依托独特的长期野外监测数据，以亚高山植物红花星点花（Ipomopsis aggregata）及其近缘种细叶星点花（I. tenuituba）的杂交类群为研究对象，基于野外实测数据对单一性状对进化拯救贡献的确定性模型与随机模型进行参数化。若不存在进化或表型可塑性，受气候变化引发的融雪提前及由此产生的干旱胁迫影响，本研究中的两个目标种群预计将在当地灭绝。针对比叶面积（specific leaf area, SLA）的表型选择强度已通过12年的多种群监测得到估算。上述关于选择强度及其对春季年度融雪时间的环境敏感性的数据，将与此前的[原文此处截断]。
研究样地共4处：3处位于美国科罗拉多州Gunnsion国家森林的“贫困峡谷（Poverty Gulch）”区域，1处位于落基山生物实验室（Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory）的“维拉瀑布（Vera Falls）”样地，所有样地均处于美国科罗拉多州甘尼森县（Gunnison County）境内。本研究的目标植株分为两组：第一组（数据采集时间为2009-2019年）来自3处同质种植园（common garden）：分别为红花星点花（I. aggregata）样地（后文简称“agg”）、细叶星点花（I. tenuituba）样地（后文简称“ten”）以及自然杂交带核心区域样地（后文简称“hyb”）。第二组植株则为原位生长的个体，分别来自2处前述的贫困峡谷样地（“agg”与“hyb”）以及维拉瀑布样地的红花星点花种群（后文简称“VF”；数据采集时间为2017-2023年）。
该同质种植园于2007年和2008年通过种子播种建立。由于植株在种子成熟后的首个夏季仅为小型幼苗，因此同质种植园的比叶面积（SLA）测定始于植株2龄阶段，具体时间依种植园不同为2009年或2010年。截至2018年，初始种植的4512株植株中仅存15株，其余均已死亡[原文此处截断]。
# 数据集标题：预测单一性状进化对缓解气候变化引发的种群动态危机以拯救植物种群的贡献
数据集DOI：10.5061/dryad.ht76hdrtn
## 数据与文件结构说明
文件"mastervegtraitsSLA2023.csv"包含野外环境下星点花属（Ipomopsis）植物的比叶面积（SLA）实测数据。
文件"masterdemography_insitu_2023.csv"与"masterdemography_commongarden.csv"则包含对应植株的开花存活率数据。
文件"snowmelt.csv"记录了春季融雪日期数据。
文件"selection_vs_snowmelt.csv"包含了通过代码"Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd"前半部分分析得到的选择强度中间结果。
文件"IPMresults.csv"包含了由Campbell发表的研究中预测的种群有限增长率（finite rate of increase, λ）估算值，相关文献链接：https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1820096116。
文件"Campbell-EvolutionLettersMay2025.Rmd"[原文此处截断]。