2040年代我国行业减排建议

基于2040年代我国行业排放对区域空气质量及短波辐射强迫所提出的减排建议。
此建议是基于2038-2042年WRF-Chem区域空气质量模式及RRTMG辐射传输模式模拟获得。WRF-Chem模式使用第一课题所发展的RCP4.5情景下中国2040年人为活动污染物排放清单为输入，以第二课题FGOALS-g2模式模拟的RCP4.5情景下2038-2042年全球气候场为驱动。中国十个行业的贡献通过分别扰动不同行业排放的模拟结果得出。行业分类包括：发电、民生、交通运输、农业、化学工业、有色金属冶炼、非金属冶炼、钢铁冶炼、造纸印刷、及其他工业。空气污染物包括：PM2.5、PM10、臭氧、二氧化硫、二氧化氮、一氧化碳。
此建议根据不同行业排放对2038-2042年七月中国平均地面空气污染物浓度贡献及中国平均短波辐射强迫贡献，选取对地面污染物浓度贡献较大，且对净负短波辐射强迫绝对值较小的行业，作为建议优先进一步减排的行业。

Emission reduction recommendations are proposed based on the impacts of China's industrial emissions in the 2040s on regional air quality and shortwave radiative forcing.
These recommendations are derived from simulations conducted using the WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry) regional air quality model and the RRTMG radiative transfer model during 2038–2042. The WRF-Chem model takes the 2040 Chinese anthropogenic pollutant emission inventory under the RCP4.5 scenario developed by Task 1 as its input, and is driven by the global climate fields under the RCP4.5 scenario for 2038–2042 simulated by the FGOALS-g2 model from Task 2.
The contributions of ten Chinese industrial sectors are quantified by running simulations with individual emission perturbations for each sector. The sectoral classifications include: power generation, residential use, transportation, agriculture, chemical industry, non-ferrous metal smelting, non-metallic mineral smelting, iron and steel smelting, paper and printing, and other industrial sectors. The covered air pollutants include PM2.5, PM10, ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO).
Based on the contributions of each sector's emissions to the average ground-level air pollutant concentrations over China and the average shortwave radiative forcing over China during July 2038–2042, this recommendation selects sectors with relatively large contributions to ground-level pollutant concentrations but relatively small absolute values of net negative shortwave radiative forcing as the priority sectors for further emission reduction.