Evolution and drainage of ice-dammed lakes in the interior Tibetan Plateau

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are increasingly frequent under warming and degradation, exerting profound impacts on regional ecosystems, geomorphology, and human systems. Ice-dammed lakes account for nearly 70% of GLOFs worldwide, yet their dynamics remain poorly understood in remote regions such as the interior Tibetan Plateau. Here, we present the first systematic assessment of the evolution and drainage of ice-dammed lakes across the region using multi-source satellite imagery. Between 1973 and 2024, the number of ice-dammed lakes increased from 256 to 323, while the total area declined from 22.66±0.93 km2 to 20.43±1.6 km2 due to repeated drainage and diminished reservoir capacity. Newly formed lakes tended to shift toward higher elevations. A total of 775 previously unreported GLOFs were detected based on abrupt lake area loss. Bayesian regression reveals a sharp rise in GLOF frequency, from an average of 11 GLOFs per year during 1990–1994 to 42.6 GLOFs per year during 2020–2024. Meanwhile, GLOF timing has shifted earlier by 9.07±3.71 days, and pre-drainage lake areas declined by 0.02±0.01 km2 compared to 1990. These findings highlight the evolving behavior of ice-dammed lakes in response to climate change and glacial recession, with important implications for regional cryospheric research and disaster mitigation.