An Empirical Study of Private Saving in Brazil

ABSTRACT This paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of private saving in Brazil during 1965-2000. Our estimates indicate that the degree of offset between private and public saving is relatively high, in line with evidence for other Latin American countries, although it may have started to decline in recent years. In any case, fiscal policy is identified as one of the main instruments to promote the much needed increase in national saving in Brazil. Additional support to savings could come from continued financial market reforms and trade diversification.

摘要 本文对1965年至2000年巴西私人储蓄的影响因素展开实证分析。本研究的估算结果显示，巴西私人储蓄与公共储蓄的抵消程度相对较高，这与其他拉美国家的相关研究结论相符，不过近年来该抵消程度或已开始回落。无论如何，财政政策均被认定为推动巴西实现亟需的国民储蓄增长的核心手段之一。此外，持续推进金融市场改革与贸易多元化，也可为储蓄增长提供额外支撑。