Behavior of the monetary base and its conditioning factors in Brazil between January 1992 and March 1996

ABSTRACT This paper studies the behavior of the monetary base and its proximate determinants in Brazil between January of 1992 and March of 1996. To achieve this, the paper analyzes monthly variations of the base, using correlation coefficients and the relative participation of each determinant on total variation. The analysis demonstrates that there are several specific differences before and after the Real Plan in the profile of the determinants. However, the analysis also shows that in both periods one of the major determinants of the monetary base is the net flow of foreign exchange to Brazil.

摘要 本文研究了1992年1月至1996年3月期间巴西基础货币（monetary base）的运行态势及其直接决定因素。为达成该研究目标，本文通过相关系数以及各决定因素对总变动的相对贡献占比，分析了基础货币的月度变动情况。分析结果表明，在雷亚尔计划（Real Plan）实施前后，各决定因素的特征存在诸多具体差异。不过，研究同时显示，在两个阶段中，流向巴西的外汇净流动均为基础货币的核心决定因素之一。