The bandwagon effect and less interest in election results due to poll exposure; an online experiment

We tested in an online experiment how pre-election polls affect voters. We found that votes for the most popular option increased on average by seven~(\%) when polls were shown, feeding from both minority options and options with intermediate popularity. This bandwagon-effect was consistent across different electoral systems and different political issues. Participants that voted for majority options after seeing the polls took more time to vote and showed more interest in the final results. In our experiment participants voted on the distribution of 1200\$ between politically active organization. Our experiment is unique in that it offers both, a highly controlled environment to study voting and voting options that are relevant to participants because of real-world political consequences.

本研究通过在线实验，探究了选举前民意调查对选民的影响。研究结果显示，当展示民意调查结果时，最受青睐选项的得票率平均提升7%，其选票增量来源于少数派选项与中等受欢迎度选项的支持者转投。此种跟风效应（bandwagon effect）在不同选举制度与各类政治议题下均保持一致。在看到民意调查后选择多数派选项的参与者，其投票耗时更长，且对最终投票结果展现出更高的关注度。本实验中，参与者需为1200美元在多个政治活跃组织间的分配进行投票。本实验的独特之处在于，它同时具备两项核心优势：既可提供高度可控的投票研究环境，且投票选项因具备现实政治影响，与参与者的切身利益息息相关。