The Contentious Politics of the Census in Consociational Democracies, 2017-2019

The contentious politics of the census in consociational democracies research project explored the relationship between the design of political power-sharing institutions and contention and mobilisation in relation to the census in four deeply divided societies: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kenya, Lebanon and Northern Ireland. This data collection consists of transcripts from interviews with politicians, policy-makers and civil society representatives involved in organising and campaigning in relation to censuses in the four case-study countries, plus some additional interviews with respondents who had relevant insights into censuses elsewhere.<p>This project investigated the politics of the census in societies that are deeply divided along ethnic, religious or linguistic lines, addressing some of the core themes in the RCUK Cross-Council Research Programme on Global Uncertainties.
In societies that are emerging from violent conflict between different ethnic, religious or linguistic groups, peace is often maintained through an agreement that these groups will share power. One of the main ways in which agreement on such power sharing is reached is through the proportional allocation of roles in government, the civil service, the military and the police to members of the groups who have been in conflict. For example, the peace agreement might specify that a certain proportion of the parliament is reserved for members of a particular minority group. In order to assess what such proportionality looks like, though, an accurate census is required. The process of conducting a census in this context can be particularly challenging, especially when group leaders know that their share of political power is partly dependent on the results. This can result in intense debates about how census questions are worded, and the conduct of the census itself may be affected by campaigns to get respondents to answer questions in particular ways, in the belief that this will influence their political representation.
This aspect of the politics of the census in deeply divided societies has not been studied in significant depth by social scientists, and as a result we know little about the relationship between the design of political institutions in these societies and the likelihood of the census becoming the subject of contentious political debates. This research project addressed this lack of knowledge through examining the politics of the census in four deeply divided societies: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Ireland, Kenya and Lebanon.
As part of the project, I conducted interviews with key policy-makers and civil society representatives in the four case-study countries as well as at international organisations and donor agencies, and analysed a large amount of written documents relating to censuses in the four case-study countries, including media coverage, consultation papers and responses, census committee minutes and papers from official archives.</p>

**协合民主制（consociational democracy）下人口普查的争议政治**研究项目，探讨了四个深度分裂社会——波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、肯尼亚、黎巴嫩及北爱尔兰——中，政治权力分享制度的设计与人口普查相关的争议及动员之间的关联。本数据集收录了来自上述四个案例研究国中，参与人口普查组织与宣传活动的政客、政策制定者及民间社会代表的访谈转写文本，另包含部分对其他地区人口普查拥有相关研究见解的受访者的访谈内容。

本项目聚焦于沿族裔、宗教或语言维度深度分裂的社会中的人口普查政治，呼应了英国研究理事会（RCUK）全球不确定性跨理事会研究计划的核心主题。

在经历过不同族裔、宗教或语言群体间暴力冲突的社会中，和平往往通过一项协议得以维系：各群体将共享政治权力。达成此类权力分享协议的核心途径之一，便是将政府、公务员体系、军队及警方中的职位按比例分配给曾参与冲突的群体成员。例如，和平协议可能规定议会中特定比例的席位预留予某一少数群体成员。然而，要评估此类比例分配的具体实施情况，需依托精准的人口普查数据。在此类情境下开展人口普查工作往往极具挑战，尤其是当群体领袖意识到自身的政治权力份额部分取决于普查结果时。这可能引发关于普查问题措辞的激烈辩论，而普查本身的实施也可能受到旨在引导受访者按特定方式作答的宣传活动的影响——相关方认为此举将左右自身的政治代表权。

社会科学家尚未对深度分裂社会中人口普查政治的这一侧面展开深入研究，因此我们对这类社会的政治制度设计与人口普查成为争议性政治议题的可能性之间的关联知之甚少。本研究项目通过考察波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那、北爱尔兰、肯尼亚及黎巴嫩四个深度分裂社会中的人口普查政治，填补了这一认知空白。

作为项目的组成部分，本研究对四个案例研究国的关键政策制定者、民间社会代表，以及国际组织与捐助机构的相关人员开展了访谈，并对上述四国与人口普查相关的大量书面资料进行了分析，其中涵盖媒体报道、咨询文件与反馈意见、人口普查委员会会议纪要及官方档案文件。