Climate change at Utah ski resorts: Impacts, perceptions, and adaptation strategies (data and code)

Climate change is a threat to ski resorts, the ski industry, and mountain communities that rely on ski tourism. Ski resorts may be able to mitigate some of the social and economic impacts caused by climate change with proactive adaptation strategies. Using historical weather data, future climate projections, and interviews with ski resort managers in Utah (USA), this research investigates the effects of climate change on ski resorts across the state. We examine past temperature change at all resorts from 1980 – 2018, and climate projections from 2021 – 2100 under different climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Semi-structured interviews with resort managers also provide insights into how resort leadership perceives the impacts of climate change, are implementing adaptation strategies, and are addressing barriers to adaptation. Many resorts in Utah are warming faster than global averages, and minimum temperatures are rising faster than maximum temperatures. By the end of the century, winter (December – March) minimum daily temperatures in Utah could warm an additional 6.0°C under the RCP 8.5 scenario near Northern Utah resorts, and 6.6°C near Southern Utah resorts. Resort managers are concerned about shorter season lengths, shifting ski seasons, less snow cover, and poorer snow quality. Many resorts are already adapting, with the most common adaptations being snowmaking and diversifying outdoor recreation offerings (particularly during the summer and shoulder seasons). Barriers to adaptation reported by managers include financial costs, adequate water availability for snowmaking, and uncertainty about climate change projections. Climate change is already impacting Utah ski resorts, but adaptation practices can reduce the negative impacts to some degree at most resorts.

气候变化对滑雪度假村、滑雪产业及依赖滑雪旅游的山地社区构成严峻威胁。滑雪度假村可通过前瞻性适应策略，缓解气候变化带来的部分社会与经济影响。本研究依托历史气象数据、未来气候预估结果，以及对美国犹他州滑雪度假村管理者的访谈，探究气候变化对全州范围内滑雪度假村的影响。我们分析了1980年至2018年间所有度假村的气温变化情况，以及2021年至2100年在不同气候变化情景（RCP 2.6、4.5和8.5）下的气候预估结果。针对度假村管理者的半结构化访谈，也揭示了度假村管理层如何认知气候变化的影响、正在实施哪些适应策略，以及如何应对适应过程中的各类障碍。犹他州多数度假村的升温速率快于全球平均水平，且最低气温的上升速率高于最高气温。到本世纪末，在RCP 8.5情景下，犹他州北部度假村周边区域的冬季（12月至次年3月）日最低气温或将再升高6.0℃，南部度假村周边区域则可能升高6.6℃。度假村管理者对滑雪季缩短、滑雪季偏移、积雪减少以及雪质变差表示深切担忧。当前已有不少度假村启动适应措施，其中最常见的手段为人工造雪，以及拓展户外休闲项目供给（尤其在夏季和过渡季）。管理者提及的适应障碍包括资金成本、人工造雪所需的充足水资源，以及气候变化预估结果的不确定性。气候变化已对犹他州的滑雪度假村造成切实影响，但多数度假村可通过适应实践在一定程度上降低此类负面影响。