Marriage–Divorce Dynamics in Azerbaijan, 2014 – 2023: A Time-Series Study

Our study presents the first high-resolution, decade-long time-series analysis of marriage and divorce trends in Azerbaijan, leveraging monthly civil-registry micro-data from 2014 to 2023. By employing advanced computational econometric techniques — including seasonal–trend decomposition, ARIMA modeling, and ARDL analysis — we quantify the profound demographic inversion Azerbaijan has experienced in recent years: declining marriage rates and rising divorce rates, with significant structural breaks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.