The long shadow of the big lie: How beliefs about the legitimacy of the 2020 election spill over onto future elections

Has the “big lie”—the false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump—shaped citizens’ views of the legitimacy of other U.S. elections? We argue that it has. Those who believe Trump’s claim, whom we call election skeptics, lack confidence in elections for two inter-related reasons. First, because they think 2020 was inaccurately and unfairly conducted, they think that other elections will suffer a similar fate, and hence think these elections are illegitimate even before any votes are cast. Second, while all voters think elections are less legitimate when their preferred candidate loses, this effect will be especially large for election skeptics, because voter fraud gives them a mechanism to explain their candidates’ loss. Using an original panel dataset spanning the 2020 and 2022 elections, we show strong support for these hypotheses. This has important implications for our elections, and their legitimacy, moving forward., , , # The Long Shadow of The Big Lie: How Beliefs about the Legitimacy of the 2020 Election Spill Over onto Future Elections

[https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.08kprr590](https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.08kprr590)

This file contains the codebooks, data, and R scripts necessary to replicate the results of \"The Long Shadow of the Big Lie.\"

## Description of the data and file structure

Data are sorted by Figure and Table. Each has its respective Codebook.docx, .sav & .csv data files, and \_Replication.R scripts.

R and the *haven* package are both open-source and will allow all researchers the ability to replicate the analyses without losing variable labels and other data information in the .sav files. The .csv files are direct conversions, but lack some meta data that may be helpful with replication.

NAs in the original variables represent panelists who did not participate in that wave of the panel. Codes 997 - 999 represent Not Sure, Don't Know, or Skipped Items. 997-998 are often recoded...

是否这一"大谎言"（big lie）——即宣称2020年美国总统大选被窃取自唐纳德·特朗普的虚假言论——影响了美国民众对其他选举合法性的看法？我们认为答案是肯定的。那些认同特朗普这一主张的群体，我们将其称为选举怀疑论者，他们对选举缺乏信心，这源于两个相互关联的原因。其一，由于他们认为2020年大选的开展存在失准与不公，因此认定其他选举也将重蹈覆辙，甚至在投票开始前就判定这些选举不具备合法性。其二，尽管所有选民在支持的候选人落选时，都会认为选举合法性降低，但这一效应在选举怀疑论者身上体现得尤为显著——因为选民欺诈论为他们解释己方候选人落选提供了合理依据。我们使用覆盖2020年与2022年大选的原创面板数据集，为上述假说提供了强有力的实证支持。这一研究结果对未来美国选举及其合法性建设具有重要意义。

# 《大谎言的深远影响：2020年大选合法性认知如何外溢至后续选举》

https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.08kprr590

本文件包含复现《大谎言的深远影响》研究结果所需的编码手册、数据集与R脚本。

## 数据与文件结构说明

数据集按图表与表格进行分类。每一组数据均配有对应的Codebook.docx、.sav与.csv格式的数据文件，以及_Replication.R脚本文件。

R语言与*haven*包均为开源工具，可帮助所有研究人员复现分析过程，且不会丢失.sav文件中的变量标签与其他数据元信息。.csv格式文件为直接转换所得，但缺失部分有助于复现研究的元数据。

原始变量中的NA值代表未参与该轮面板调查的受访者。代码997至999分别对应"不确定""不知道"或"跳过题目"的情况，其中997与998通常会被重新编码……