2012 round population projections

IMPORTANT NOTE: These projections have been superceded, please see  https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/  for the latest GLA projections.   The 2012 round of projections were the first to incorporate initial results from the 2011-Census. The projections adopted ONS’s subsequent 2011 mid-year estimate as the base population from which to project forward. No migration data was available from the census to update the models so these used a mix of modified rates from the 2001 Census and rates taken from ONS’s 2010-based subnational projections. No population back-series consistent with the 2011 mid-year estimate was available at the time the projections were being produced. A consistent back-series is crucial for the projection process as it is used to generate the rates and propensities governing fertility, mortality and migration used in the projections. The GLA produced its own back-series consistent with 2001 and 2011 mid-year estimates. For this round, both trend-based and development-linked projections were produced. The development-linked projections made use of trajectories derived from the 2009 Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment. Household formation rates were based on those from DCLG’s 2011-based household projections.

重要提示：本预测结果已被更新，请查阅 https://data.london.gov.uk/demography/ 获取最新的大伦敦管理局（GLA）预测数据。2012轮次的预测首次纳入了2011年人口普查的初步结果。本预测所采用的基线人口数据为国家统计局（ONS）2011年中位估计数。由于普查中未提供迁移数据以更新模型，因此模型采用了2001年人口普查中修改后的比率与基于ONS 2010年子国家预测的比率相结合。在生成预测时，无法获得与2011年中位估计数一致的逆向人口数据。逆向人口数据对于预测过程至关重要，因为它被用于生成影响生育、死亡和迁移的预测中的比率与倾向。大伦敦管理局（GLA）根据2001年和2011年中位估计数生成了自己的逆向人口数据。在本轮预测中，产生了基于趋势的预测和发展相关预测。发展相关预测利用了从2009年战略住房土地可用性评估中导出的轨迹。家庭形成率基于DCLG基于2011年的家庭预测数据。