Cost Benefit Analysis for safety projects at sea – Does the method give the entire picture?

The method used for CBA of safety projects at sea should be altered to include direct and indirect costs related to precautions taken to avoid risk. This is one of the conclusions from a cost benefit analysis regarding a ship tunnel at Stad, carried out in 2007. Stad is a peninsula located on the western coast of Norway. A tunnel here would give seafarers the opportunity to pass by Stad regardless of the weather conditions and ship size. The waters surrounding Stad are difficult, and this stretch of sea is one of the most feared along the entire Norwegian coast. Interviews and two open meetings gave information about how the people and companies react to the current sailing conditions. Information gathered indicates that aspects of great importance to some of the stakeholders, are not captured by the prevailing CBA method. Today, the seafarers take precautions which would not be necessary if a tunnel was built. This represents costs today and savings should the tunnel be built, and thus the savings should be included in the assessment of the tunnel. Research should be carried out to go more thoroughly into the effects, and the method to assess safety projects at sea. New assessments for sea projects should be altered to take these effects into account.

海上安全项目的成本效益分析（CBA，Cost-Benefit Analysis）方法亟需修订，以纳入风险规避预防措施所产生的直接与间接成本。该结论是2007年针对挪威斯塔德（Stad）船舶隧道开展的一项成本效益分析研究所得出的结论之一。斯塔德是坐落于挪威西海岸的一处半岛。在此处修建船舶隧道，可使海员无需受天气状况与船舶尺度限制，顺利绕行斯塔德海域。斯塔德周边海域航行条件严苛，该航段更是挪威沿海最令船员心生畏惧的海域之一。研究团队通过访谈与两场公开座谈会，收集了民众与企业对当前通航环境的反馈信息。收集到的信息显示，当前主流的CBA方法未能覆盖部分利益相关方高度重视的相关维度。当前，海员需采取诸多若修建隧道便无需实施的预防措施；此类举措在现行通航模式下产生了额外成本，而若隧道建成则可转化为成本节约，因此该部分节约额应当纳入船舶隧道项目的评估范畴。后续应开展深入研究，进一步探究相关影响机制，并完善海上安全项目的评估方法。未来海上项目的评估工作应当进行修订，将上述影响纳入考量维度。