Assessing the impact of applying individual discount rates in power system expansion of Ecuador using OSeMOSYS

The development of the electricity supply sector needs data and energy system models to aid government instances to achieve optimal decision-making. Since 2006, Ecuador has faced gradual changes in the electricity sector and invested more than 11 billion dollars in expanding the generation. We use an open-source model generator in the present study and develop the first long-term generation expansion model for Ecuador. We select specific social and hurdle rates to represent the government's decision to mobilize private energy infrastructure investments. We build scenarios for social and hurdle rates to evaluate the sensitivity of renewable and conventional generation technologies to such rates. Results show that medium and large hydropower have a low sensitivity to discount rates. Medium and large hydropower plays a significant role in the energy mix in the mid and long-term, regardless of the discount rate. Results from this model find no significant contribution of non-hydro renewables. Among these, only geothermal reaches around 160 MW for all scenarios. Installing geothermal and hydropower minimizes generation from conventional technologies until 2034; then, CCGT installations increase CO2 emissions above 2020 levels.

电力供应产业的发展亟需数据与能源系统模型的支撑，以助力政府机构制定最优决策。自2006年起，厄瓜多尔电力行业逐步推进改革，并已投入超110亿美元用于扩大发电产能。本研究采用开源模型生成器，构建了首个针对厄瓜多尔的长期发电扩展模型。我们选取特定的社会折现率与门槛收益率，用以表征政府调动民间资本参与能源基础设施投资的决策逻辑。我们构建了多组社会折现率与门槛收益率场景，以评估可再生能源与传统发电技术对这类参数的敏感性。研究结果显示，大中型水电对折现率的敏感性较低；无论折现率如何变化，大中型水电在中长期能源结构中均占据重要地位。该模型的结果表明，非水可再生能源未产生显著的装机贡献，其中仅地热发电在所有场景下的装机规模可达约160兆瓦。在2034年前，地热与水电装机可最大限度降低传统发电技术的发电量；此后，联合循环燃气轮机（Combined Cycle Gas Turbine，CCGT）的装机将导致二氧化碳排放量超过2020年水平。