Reconstruction of the 1938 Hurricane in New England and Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico

This study examined landscape and regional impacts of the 1938 Hurricane in New England and Hurricane Hugo in Puerto Rico, with a focus on the Harvard Forest and the Luquillo Expermental Forest. For details on methods and results, please see the published paper (Boose, E. R., D. R. Foster and M. Fluet. 1994. Hurricane impacts to tropical and temperate forest landscapes. Ecological Monographs 64(4): 369-400). The Abstract from the paper is reproduced below. "Hurricanes represent an important natural disturbance process to tropical and temperate forests in many coastal areas of the world. The complex patterns of damage created in forests by hurricane winds result from the interaction of meteorological, physiographic, and biotic factors on a range of spatial scales. To improve our understanding of these factors and of the role of catastrophic hurricane wind as a disturbance process, we take an integrative approach. A simple meteorological model (HURRECON) utilizes meteorological data to reconstruct wind conditions at specific sites and regional gradients in wind speed and direction during a hurricane. A simple topograhic exposure model (EXPOS) utilizes wind direction predicted by HURRECON and a digital elevation map to estimate landscape-level exposure to the strongest winds. Actual damage to forest stands is assessed through analysis of remotely sensed, historical, and field data. "These techniques were used to evaluate the characteristics and impacts of two important hurricanes: Hurricane Hugo (1989) in Puerto Rico and the 1938 New England Hurricane, storms of comparable magnitude in regions that differ greatly in climate, vegetation, physiography, and disturbance regimes. In both cases patterns of damage on a regional scale were found to agree with the predicted distribution of peak wind gust velocities. On a landscape scale there was also good agreement between patterns of forest damage and predicted exposure in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico and the town of Petersham, Massachusetts. At the Harvard and Pisgah Forests in central New England the average orientation of wind-thrown trees was very close to the predicted peak wind direction, while at Luquillo there was also good agreement, with some apparent modification of wind direction by the mountainous terrain. At Harvard Forest there was evidence that trees more susceptible to windthrow were felled earlier in the storm. "This approach may be used to study the effects of topography on wind direction and the relation of forest damage to wind speed and duration; to establish broad-scale gradients of hurricane frequency, intensity, and wind direction for particular regions; and to determine landscape-level exposure to long-term hurricane disturbance at particular sites."

本研究考察了1938年新英格兰飓风与波多黎各的雨果飓风对景观及区域的影响，重点聚焦于哈佛森林（Harvard Forest）与卢奎略实验林（Luquillo Experimental Forest）。如需了解方法与结果细节，请参阅已发表论文（Boose, E. R., D. R. Foster 与 M. Fluet. 1994. 飓风对热带与温带森林景观的影响. 《生态专论》64(4): 369-400）。该论文的摘要转载如下：

“飓风是全球众多沿海地区热带与温带森林的重要自然干扰过程。飓风风力在森林中造成的复杂破坏格局，源于气象、地形地貌与生物因子在不同空间尺度上的相互作用。为加深我们对这些因子以及灾难性飓风风力作为干扰过程的作用的理解，本研究采用整合研究方法。一款简易气象模型（HURRECON）可利用气象数据重建飓风期间特定地点的风况，以及风速与风向的区域梯度。一款简易地形暴露模型（EXPOS）则结合HURRECON预测的风向与数字高程地图，估算景观尺度下遭遇强风的暴露程度。林分的实际破坏情况则通过分析遥感、历史与实地数据进行评估。

我们运用这些技术评估了两场重要飓风的特征与影响：波多黎各1989年的雨果飓风，以及1938年新英格兰飓风——这两场风暴强度相当，但所在区域的气候、植被、地形地貌与干扰制度（disturbance regimes）差异显著。研究发现，在区域尺度上，两场飓风的破坏格局均与预测的最大阵风风速分布高度吻合。在景观尺度上，波多黎各卢奎略实验林与马萨诸塞州彼得舍姆镇的森林破坏格局与预测的暴露程度也具有良好一致性。在新英格兰中部的哈佛森林与皮斯加森林，被风倒（windthrow）树木的平均朝向与预测的最大风向极为接近；而在卢奎略地区，虽因山地地形对风向存在一定修正，但二者仍具有良好一致性。在哈佛森林中，有证据表明更易发生风倒的树木在风暴过程中更早被吹倒。

该方法可用于研究地形对风向的影响，以及森林破坏与风速、持续时间之间的关系；可用于构建特定区域的飓风频率、强度与风向的大尺度梯度；还可用于确定特定地点在长期飓风干扰下的景观尺度暴露风险。”